全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods.

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来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1038/nclimate3115
	Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods.
	Liu B; Asseng S; Müller C; Ewert F; Elliott J; Lobell DB; Martre P; Ruane AC
发表日期	2016
出处	Nature Climate Change 6 (12): 1130-1136
出版年	2016
语种	英语
摘要	The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with di erent methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization e ects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1◦C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from di erent methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to su er more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.
主题	Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13986/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130793
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu B,Asseng S,Müller C,et al. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods.. 2016.