| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.20937/ATM.2017.30.02.05 |
| Modeling for insights not numbers: The long-term low-carbon transformation. | |
| Schinko T; Bachner G; Schleicher S; Steinigner KW | |
| 发表日期 | 2017 |
| 出处 | Atmósfera 30 (1): 137-161 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Limiting global warming to prevent dangerous climate change requires drastically reducing global greenhouse gases emissions and a transformation towards a low-carbon society. Existing energy- and climate-economic modeling approaches that are informing policy and decision makers in shaping the future net-zero emissions society are increasingly seen with skepticism regarding their ability to forecast the long-term evolution of highly complex, nonlinear social-ecological systems. We present a structured review of state-of-the-art modeling approaches, focusing on their ability and limitations to develop and assess pathways towards a low-carbon society. We find that existing methodological approaches have some fundamental deficiencies that limit their potential to understand the subtleties of long-term low-carbon transformation processes. We suggest that a useful methodological framework has to move beyond current state of the art techniques and has to simultaneously fulfill the following requirements: (1) representation of an inherent dynamic analysis, describing and investigating explicitly the path between different states of system variables, (2) specification of details in the energy cascade, in particular the central role of functionalities and services that are provided by the interaction of energy flows and corresponding stock variables, (3) reliance on a clear distinction between structures of the sociotechnical energy system and socioeconomic mechanisms to develop it and (4) ability to evaluate pathways along societal criteria. To that end we propose the development of a versatile multi-purpose integrated modeling framework, building on the specific strengths of the various modeling approaches available while at the same time omitting their weaknesses. This paper identifies respective strengths and weaknesses to guide such development. |
| 关键词 | Low-carbon transformation energy-economic modeling climate-economic modeling structured literature review |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14517/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130836 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Schinko T,Bachner G,Schleicher S,et al. Modeling for insights not numbers: The long-term low-carbon transformation.. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| 52389-148456-1-PB.pd（463KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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