| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13447 |
| Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections. | |
| Alexander P; Prestele R; Verburg PH; Arneth A; Baranzelli C; Batista e Silva F; Brown C; Butler A | |
| 发表日期 | 2017 |
| 出处 | Global Change Biology 23: 767-781 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies, and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover. |
| 主题 | Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13736/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130839 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alexander P,Prestele R,Verburg PH,et al. Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections.. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| 8075_1_art_file_9920（498KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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