| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s10113-016-0983-6 |
| Exploring future agricultural development and biodiversity in Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi: a spatially explicit scenario-based assessment. | |
| van Soesbergen A; Arnell AP; Sassen M; Stuch B; Schaldach R; Göpel J; Vervoort J; Mason-D’Croz D | |
| 发表日期 | 2017 |
| 出处 | Regional Environmental Change 17 (5): 1409-1420 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Competition for land is increasing as a consequence of the growing demands for food and other commodities and the need to conserve biodiversity and ecosystem services. Land conversion and the intensification of current agricultural systems continues to lead to a loss of biodiversity and trade-offs among ecosystem functions. Decision-makers need to understand these trade-offs in order to better balance different demands on land and resources. There is an urgent need for spatially explicit information and analyses on the effects of different trajectories of human-induced landscape change in biodiversity and ecosystem services. We assess the potential implications of a set of plausible socio-economic and climate scenarios for agricultural production and demand and model-associated land use and land cover changes between 2005 and 2050 to assess potential impacts on biodiversity in Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi. We show that different future socio-economic scenarios are consistent in their projections of areas of high agricultural development leading to similar spatial patterns of habitat and biodiversity loss. Yet, we also show that without protected areas, biodiversity losses are higher and that expanding protected areas to include other important biodiversity areas can help reduce biodiversity losses in all three countries. These results highlight the need for effective protection and the potential benefits of expanding the protected area network while meeting agricultural production needs. |
| 主题 | Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13257/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130898 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | van Soesbergen A,Arnell AP,Sassen M,et al. Exploring future agricultural development and biodiversity in Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi: a spatially explicit scenario-based assessment.. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| Exploring%20future%2（4589KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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