| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1002/wcc.457 |
| Characterizing half-a-degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets. | |
| James R; Washington R; Schleussner C-F; Rogelj J; Conway D | |
| 发表日期 | 2017 |
| 出处 | Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 8 (2): e457 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The Paris Agreement long-term global temperature goal refers to two global warming levels: well below 2°C and 1.5°C above preindustrial. Regional climate signals at specific global warming levels, and especially the differences between 1.5°C and 2°C, are not well constrained, however. In particular, methodological challenges related to the assessment of such differences have received limited attention. This article reviews alternative approaches for identifying regional climate signals associated with global temperature limits, and evaluates the extent to which they constitute a sound basis for impacts analysis. Four methods are outlined, including comparing data from different greenhouse gas scenarios, sub-selecting climate models based on global temperature response, pattern scaling, and extracting anomalies at the time of each global temperature increment. These methods have rarely been applied to compare 2°C with 1.5°C, but some demonstrate potential avenues for useful research. Nevertheless, there are methodological challenges associated with the use of existing climate model experiments, which are generally designed to model responses to different levels of greenhouse gas forcing, rather than to model climate responses to a specific level of forcing that targets a given level of global temperature change. Novel approaches may be required to address policy questions, in particular: to differentiate between half degree warming increments while accounting for different sources of uncertainty; to examine mechanisms of regional climate change including the potential for nonlinear responses; and to explore the relevance of time-lagged processes in the climate system and declining emissions, and the resulting sensitivity to alternative mitigation pathways. |
| 主题 | Energy (ENE) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14340/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130938 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | James R,Washington R,Schleussner C-F,et al. Characterizing half-a-degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets.. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| James_et_al-2017-Wil（1442KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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