| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1371/journal.pone.0179171 |
| Probabilistic Population Aging. | |
| Sanderson W; Scherbov S; Gerland P | |
| 发表日期 | 2017 |
| 出处 | PLoS ONE 12 (6): e0179171 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We merge two methodologies, prospective measures of population aging and probabilistic population forecasts. We compare the speed of change and variability in forecasts of the old age dependency ratio and the prospective old age dependency ratio as well as the same comparison for the median age and the prospective median age. While conventional measures of population aging are computed on the basis of the number of years people have already lived, prospective measures are computed also taking account of the expected number of years they have left to live. Those remaining life expectancies change over time and differ from place to place. We compare the probabilistic distributions of the conventional and prospective measures using examples from China, Germany, Iran, and the United States. The changes over time and the variability of the prospective indicators are smaller than those that are observed in the conventional ones. A wide variety of new results emerge from the combination of methodologies. For example, for Germany, Iran, and the United States the likelihood that the prospective median age of the population in 2098 will be lower than it is today is close to 100 percent. |
| 主题 | World Population (POP) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14681/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130943 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sanderson W,Scherbov S,Gerland P. Probabilistic Population Aging.. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| journal.pone.0179171（4906KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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