| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s10680-017-9434-4 |
| Constrained Mortality Extrapolation to Old Age: An Empirical Assessment. | |
| [unavailable] | |
| 发表日期 | 2017 |
| 出处 | European Journal of Population 34 (3): 441-457 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper aims to improve the accuracy of parametric extrapolations of the death rates into old age by constraining the extrapolation model on presumed life expectancy at old age. Such a task is particularly important in cases where the data quality at old age, in particular the age exaggeration, is not sufficient for reliable mortality estimates. Our tests are based on period data from the Human Mortality Database and the use of the Horiuchi–Coale and Mitra formulas for reducing the bias of life expectancy in the open age interval. We show that extrapolation accuracy is substantially improved when the extrapolation is constrained by either the empirical life expectancy or the Horiuchi–Coale or Mitra estimates. Unconstrained extrapolations and those constrained by conventional life table estimates of life expectancy in the open age interval show substantial biases and should be avoided. Combining extrapolation with life expectancy estimates which are robust to the effects of age exaggeration appears to be a valuable way of improving mortality estimation. |
| 主题 | World Population (POP) |
| 关键词 | Old-age mortality Life expectancy Life table Mortality graduation Mortality models |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14750/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/131021 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | [unavailable]. Constrained Mortality Extrapolation to Old Age: An Empirical Assessment.. 2017. |
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| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| s10680-017-9434-4.pd（2579KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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