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来源类型 | Article |
规范类型 | 其他 |
DOI | 10.3390/su9071152 |
Vulnerability of Ukrainian forests to climate change. | |
Shvidenko A; Buksha I; Krakovska S; Lakyda P | |
发表日期 | 2017 |
出处 | Sustainability 9: e1152 |
出版年 | 2017 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | Ukraine is a country of the Mid-Latitude ecotone – a transition zone between forest zone and forestless dry lands. Availability of water defines distribution of the country’s forests and decreasing their productivity towards the south. Climate change generates a particular threat for Ukrainian forests and stability of agroforestry landscapes. The paper considers the impacts of expected climate change on vulnerability of Ukrainian forests using ensembles of global and regional climatic models (RCM) based on IPCC Scenarios B1, A2, A1B, and a “dry and warm” scenario A1B+T-P (increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation). The spatially explicit assessment was provided by RCM for the WMO standard period (1961-1990), “recent” (1991-2010) and three future periods – 2011-2030, 2031-2050 and 2081-2100. Forest-climate model by Vorobjov and model of amplitude of flora’s tolerance to climate change by Didukh, as well as a number of specialized climatic indicators, were used in the assessment. Different approaches leads to rather consistent conclusions. Water stress is the major limitation factor of distribution and resilience of flatland Ukrainian forests. Within Scenario A1B, the area with unsuitable growth conditions for major forest forming species will substantially increase by end of the century occupying major part of Ukraine. Scenario A1B+T-P projects even a more dramatic decline of the country’s forests. It is expected that the boundary of conditions that are favorable for forests will shift to north and north-west, and forests of the xeric belt will be the most vulnerable. Consistent policies of adaptation and mitigation might reduce climate-induced risks for Ukrainian forests. |
主题 | Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) |
关键词 | Ukrainian forests climate change xeric belt predictions of state and distribution of forests over 21st century Mid-Latitude ecotone. |
URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14690/ |
来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
引用统计 | |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/131043 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Shvidenko A,Buksha I,Krakovska S,et al. Vulnerability of Ukrainian forests to climate change.. 2017. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
Shvidenko_et_al_sust(6210KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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