| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1002/2016EF000492 |
| Emission pathways to achieve 2.0°C and 1.5°C climate targets. | |
| Su X; Takahashi K; Fujimori S; Hasegawa T; Tanaka K; Kato E; Shiogama H; Masui T | |
| 发表日期 | 2017 |
| 出处 | Earth's Future : 1-13 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We investigated the feasibilities of 2.0°C and 1.5°C climate targets by considering the abatement potentials of a full suite of greenhouse gases, pollutants, and aerosols. We revised the inter-temporal dynamic optimization model DICE-2013R by introducing three features as follows. First, we applied a new marginal abatement cost curve derived under moderate assumptions regarding future socioeconomic development—the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 (SSP2) scenario. Second, we addressed emission abatement for not only industrial CO2 but also land-use CO2, CH4, N2O, halogenated gases, CO, volatile organic compounds, SOx, NOx, black carbon and organic carbon. Third, we improved the treatment of the non-CO2 components in the climate module based on MAGICC 6.0. We obtained the following findings: (1) It is important to address the individual emissions in an analysis of low stabilization scenarios because abating land-use CO2, non-CO2 and aerosol emissions also contributes to maintaining a low level of radiative forcing and substantially affects the climate costs. (2) The 2.0°C target can be efficiently reached under the assumptions of the SSP2 scenario. (3) The 1.5°C target can be met with early deep cuts under the assumption of a temperature overshoot, and it will triple the carbon price and double the mitigation cost compared with the 2.0°C case. |
| 主题 | Energy (ENE) ; Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) |
| 关键词 | Climate change Integrated assessment models DICE Anthropogenic emissions SSP scenarios |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14668/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/131050 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Su X,Takahashi K,Fujimori S,et al. Emission pathways to achieve 2.0°C and 1.5°C climate targets.. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| Su_et_al-2017-Earth%（911KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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