| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.004 |
| The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century. | |
| Havlik P; Gusti M; Johnson N; Kolp P; Strubegger M | |
| 发表日期 | 2017 |
| 出处 | Global Environmental Change 42: 251-267 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Studies of global environmental change make extensive use of scenarios to explore how the future can evolve under a consistent set of assumptions. The recently developed Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) create a framework for the study of climate-related scenario outcomes. Their five narratives span a wide range of worlds that vary in their challenges for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Here we provide background on the quantification that has been selected to serve as the reference, or ‘marker’, implementation for SSP2. The SSP2 narrative describes a middle-of-the-road development in the mitigation and adaptation challenges space. We explain how the narrative has been translated into quantitative assumptions in the IIASA Integrated Assessment Modelling Framework. We show that our SSP2 marker implementation occupies a central position for key metrics along the mitigation and adaptation challenge dimensions. For many dimensions the SSP2 marker implementation also reflects an extension of the historical experience, particularly in terms of carbon and energy intensity improvements in its baseline. This leads to a steady emissions increase over the 21st century, with projected end-of-century warming nearing 4 °C relative to preindustrial levels. On the other hand, SSP2 also shows that global-mean temperature increase can be limited to below 2 °C, pending stringent climate policies throughout the world. The added value of the SSP2 marker implementation for the wider scientific community is that it can serve as a starting point to further explore integrated solutions for achieving multiple societal objectives in light of the climate adaptation and mitigation challenges that society could face over the 21st century. |
| 主题 | Air Quality & ; Greenhouse Gases (AIR) ; Energy (ENE) ; Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) ; Transitions to New Technologies (TNT) ; Mitigation of Air Pollution (MAG) |
| 关键词 | Shared socioeconomic pathways SSP Greenhouse gas emissions Climate change Integrated assessment modeling Mitigation Adaptation |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13326/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/131065 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Havlik P,Gusti M,Johnson N,et al. The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century.. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| The%20marker%20quant（4622KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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