| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004 |
| The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. | |
| O'Neill BC; Kriegler E; Ebi KL; Kemp-Benedict E; Riahi K; Rothman DS; van Ruijven BJ; van Vuuren DP | |
| 发表日期 | 2017 |
| 出处 | Global Environmental Change 42: 169-180 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Long-term scenarios play an important role in research on global environmental change. The climate change research community is developing new scenarios integrating future changes in climate and society to investigate climate impacts as well as options or mitigation and adaptation. One component of these new scenarios is a set of alternative futures of societal development known as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The conceptual framework for the design and use of the SSPs calls for the development of global pathways describing the future evolution of key aspects of society that would together imply a range of challenges for mitigating and adapting to climate change. Here we present one component of these pthways: the SSP narratives, a set of five qualitative descriptions of future changes in demographics, human development, economy and lifestyle, policies and institutions, technology, and environment and natural resources. We describe the methods used to develop the narratives as well as how these pathways are hypothesized to produce particular combinations of challenges to mitigation and adaptation. Development of the narratives drew on expert opinion to 1) identify key determinants of these challenges that were essential to incorporate in the narratives and (2) combine these elements in the narratives in a manner consistent with scholarship on their inter-relationships. The narratives are intended as a description of plausible future conditions at the level of large world regions that can serve as a basis for integrated scenarios of emissions and land use, as well as climate impact, adaptation and vulnerability analyses. |
| 主题 | Energy (ENE) |
| 关键词 | scenarios climate change mitigation narratives shared socioeconomic pathways |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11293/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/131081 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | O'Neill BC,Kriegler E,Ebi KL,et al. The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century.. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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