全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Decomposing passenger transport futures: Comparing results of global integrated assessment models.

G2TT

来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1016/j.trd.2016.07.003
	Decomposing passenger transport futures: Comparing results of global integrated assessment models.
	Edelenbosch O; McCollum D; van Vuuren DP; Bertram C; Carrara S; Daly H; Fujimori S; Kitous A
发表日期	2017
出处	Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 55: 281-293
出版年	2017
语种	英语
摘要	The transport sector is growing fast in terms of energy use and accompanying greenhouse gas emissions. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are used widely to analyze energy system transitions over a decadal time frame to help inform and evaluating international climate policy. As part of this, IAMs also explore pathways of decarbonizing the transport sector. This study quantifies the contribution of changes in activity growth, modal structure, energy intensity and fuel mix to the projected passenger transport carbon emission pathways. The Laspeyres index decomposition method is used to compare results across models and scenarios, and against historical transport trends. Broadly-speaking the models show similar trends, projecting continuous transport activity growth, reduced energy intensity and in some cases modal shift to carbon-intensive modes - similar to those observed historically in a business-as-usual scenario. In policy-induced mitigation scenarios further enhancements of energy efficiency and fuel switching is seen, showing a clear break with historical trends. Reduced activity growth and modal shift (towards less carbon-intensive modes) only have a limited contribution to emission reduction. Measures that could induce such changes could possibly complement the aggressive, technology switch required in the current scenarios to reach internationally agreed climate targets.
主题	Energy (ENE)
关键词	Passenger transportation Energy modelling Model comparison Low emission scenarios
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13621/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/131084
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Edelenbosch O,McCollum D,van Vuuren DP,et al. Decomposing passenger transport futures: Comparing results of global integrated assessment models.. 2017.