全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): How do climate-related uncertainties influence 2 and 1.5 °C pathways?

G2TT

来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1007/s11625-017-0525-2
	How do climate-related uncertainties influence 2 and 1.5 °C pathways?
	Su X; Shiogama H; Tanaka K; Fujimori S; Hasegawa T; Hijioka Y; Takahashi K; Liu J
发表日期	2018
出处	Sustainability Science 13 (2): 291-299
出版年	2018
语种	英语
摘要	We investigate how uncertainties in key parameters in the carbon cycle and climate system propagate to the costs of climate change mitigation and adaptation needed to achieve the 2 and 1.5 °C targets by 2100 using a stochastic version of the simple climate model for optimization (SCM4OPT), an integrated assessment model. For the 2 °C target, we find a difference in 2100 CO2 emission levels of 20.5 GtCO2 (− 1.2 GtCO2 to 19.4 GtCO2), whereas this difference is 12.0 GtCO2 (− 6.9 GtCO2 to 5.1 GtCO2) for the 1.5 °C target (17–83% range). Total radiative forcing in 2100 is estimated to be 3.3 (2.7–3.9) Wm−2 for the 2 °C case and 2.5 (2.0–3.0) Wm−2 for the 1.5 °C case. Carbon prices in 2100 are 482 (181–732) USD(2005)/tCO2 and 713 (498–1014) USD(2005)/tCO2 for the 2 and 1.5 °C targets, respectively. We estimate GDP losses in 2100 that correspond to 1.9 (1.2–2.5)% of total gross output for the 2 °C target and 2.0 (1.5–2.7)% for the 1.5 °C target.
主题	Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
关键词	Climate change Climate-related uncertainties Socioeconomic scenarios Carbon prices Mitigation costs Adaptation costs
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15050/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/131173
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Su X,Shiogama H,Tanaka K,et al. How do climate-related uncertainties influence 2 and 1.5 °C pathways?. 2018.