| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1098/rsta.2016.0445 |
| Implications of possible interpretations of ‘greenhouse gas balance’ in the Paris Agreement. | |
| Fuglestvedt J; Rogelj J; Millar R J; Allen M; Boucher O; Cain M; Forster P M; Kriegler E | |
| 发表日期 | 2018 |
| 出处 | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 376 (2119): e20160445 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The main goal of the Paris Agreement as stated in Article 2 is ‘holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C’. Article 4 points to this long-term goal and the need to achieve ‘balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases'. This statement on ‘greenhouse gas balance’ is subject to interpretation, and clarifications are needed to make it operational for national and international climate policies. We study possible interpretations from a scientific perspective and analyse their climatic implications. We clarify how the implications for individual gases depend on the metrics used to relate them. We show that the way in which balance is interpreted, achieved and maintained influences temperature outcomes. Achieving and maintaining net-zero CO2-equivalent emissions conventionally calculated using GWP100 (100-year global warming potential) and including substantial positive contributions from short-lived climate-forcing agents such as methane would result in a sustained decline in global temperature. A modified approach to the use of GWP100 (that equates constant emissions of short-lived climate forcers with zero sustained emission of CO2) results in global temperatures remaining approximately constant once net-zero CO2-equivalent emissions are achieved and maintained. Our paper provides policymakers with an overview of issues and choices that are important to determine which approach is most appropriate in the context of the Paris Agreement. |
| 主题 | Energy (ENE) |
| 关键词 | CO2 equivalence Paris Agreement emission metrics greenhouse gas balance net-zero emissions |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15197/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/131201 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fuglestvedt J,Rogelj J,Millar R J,等. Implications of possible interpretations of ‘greenhouse gas balance’ in the Paris Agreement.. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| 20160445.full.pdf（3299KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
