| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1098/rsta.2016.0450 |
| Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C. | |
| Seneviratne I; Wartenburger R; Guillod BP; Hirsch AL; Vogel Martha M; Brovkin V; van Vuuren DP; Schaller N | |
| 发表日期 | 2018 |
| 出处 | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 376 (2119): e20160450 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways. |
| 主题 | Energy (ENE) ; Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) ; Water (WAT) |
| 关键词 | climate extremes, 1.5°C scenarios, land-use changes, regional climate change, climate projections, land–climate interactions |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15191/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/131202 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Seneviratne I,Wartenburger R,Guillod BP,等. Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C.. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| 20160450.full.pdf（1771KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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