| 来源类型 | Article
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| 规范类型 | 其他
|
| DOI | 10.1007/s11071-017-3446-9
|
| Conflicts among N armed groups: Scenarios from a new descriptive model. |
| Rinaldi S; Della Rossa F
|
| 发表日期 | 2018
|
| 出处 | Nonlinear Dynamics 92 (1): 3-12
|
| 出版年 | 2018
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | In this paper we propose and analyze a new descriptive model of armed conflicts among N groups. The model is composed of N2 ordinary differential equations, with 3(N2+N) constant parameters that describe military characteristics and recruitment policies, ranging from pure defensivism to pure fanaticism. The results are only preliminary, but point out interesting (though not very surprising) properties: periodic coexistence is possible, and multiple attractors can exist; governmental groups cannot go extinct if they are highly defensivist, and rebels cannot be eradicated if they are highly fanatic. Shocks due to interventions of short duration of an external army can stabilize/destabilize the system and/or eradicate some group, and the same holds true for small structural changes. Other more subtle questions concerning, for example, the existence of chaotic regimes and the systematic evaluation of the role of strategic factors like power, intelligence, and fanaticism, remain open and require further research. |
| 主题 | Evolution and Ecology (EEP)
|
| 关键词 | mathematical modeling
social systems
conflicts
terrorism
bifurcations
chaos
|
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14368/
|
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/131341
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Rinaldi S,Della Rossa F. Conflicts among N armed groups: Scenarios from a new descriptive model.. 2018.
|
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