全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data.

G2TT

来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1073/pnas.1704665115
	Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data.
	Scanlon BR; Zhang Z; Save H; Sun AY; Müller Schmied H; van Beek LPH; Wiese DN; Wada Y
发表日期	2018
出处	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115 (6): e1080-e1089
出版年	2018
语种	英语
摘要	Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002-2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (∼60% of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (≤-0.5 km3/y) and increasing (≥0.5 km3/y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variations, whereas increasing trends reflect climate variations. For example, in the Amazon, GRACE estimates a large increasing trend of ∼43 km3/y, whereas most models estimate decreasing trends (-71 to 11 km3/y). Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71-82 km3/y) but negative for models (-450 to -12 km3/y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change. Impacts of climate forcing on decadal land water storage trends exceed those of modeled human intervention by about a factor of 2. The model-GRACE comparison highlights potential areas of future model development, particularly simulated water storage. The inability of models to capture large decadal water storage trends based on GRACE indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced water storage changes may be underestimated.
主题	Water (WAT)
关键词	global hydrological models, land surface models, GRACE satellites, terrestrial total water storage anomalies, global mean sea level
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15081/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/131356
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Scanlon BR,Zhang Z,Save H,et al. Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data.. 2018.