| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3 |
| Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C. | |
| Popp A; Calvin KV; Luderer G; Emmerling J; Gernaat D; Fujimori S; Strefler J | |
| 发表日期 | 2018 |
| 出处 | Nature Climate Change 8 (4): 325-332 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m−2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m−2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale lowcarbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m−2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios. |
| 主题 | Energy (ENE) ; Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) |
| 关键词 | Climate-change mitigation, Energy and society, Energy modelling, Socioeconomic scenarios |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15153/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/131366 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Popp A,Calvin KV,Luderer G,et al. Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C.. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| Revision3_SSPx-1.9_2（268KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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