| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s10113-018-1300-3 |
| Mainstreaming of climate extreme risk into fiscal and budgetary planning: application of stochastic debt and disaster fund analysis in Austria. | |
| Mochizuki J; Schinko T; Hochrainer-Stigler S | |
| 发表日期 | 2018 |
| 出处 | Regional Environmental Change 18 (7): 2161-2172 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | While ageing-related costs are perceived as the major drivers of fiscal pressure in the EU, concerns over climate-related public expenditures have received comparatively little attention in securing the EU’s long-term fiscal sustainability. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios as bridging concept for linking the assessment of public cost of demography- and climate-related expenditures, this study proposes a climate risk mainstreaming methodology. We apply a stochastic debt model and assess the potential flood risk in Austria to the public debt and the national disaster fund. Our results indicate that public debt under no fiscal consolidation is estimated to increase from the current level of 84.5% relative to GDP in 2015 to 92.1% in 2030, with macroeconomic variability adding further risk to the country’s baseline public debt trajectory. The study finds that the estimated public contingent liability due to expected flood risk is small relative to the size of economy. The existing earmarked disaster risk reduction (DRR) funding will likely reduce the risk of frequent-and-low impact floods, yet the current budgetary arrangement may be insufficient to deal with rising risk of extreme floods in the future. This prompts the need for further discussions regarding potential reforms of the disaster fund. As many EU member states are in the early stages of designing climate change policy strategies, the proposed method can support the mainstreaming of climate-related concerns into longer-term fiscal and budgetary planning. |
| 主题 | Risk & ; Resilience (RISK) |
| 关键词 | Stochastic debt assessment Climate extremes Flood risk Public contingent liability |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15263/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/131369 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mochizuki J,Schinko T,Hochrainer-Stigler S. Mainstreaming of climate extreme risk into fiscal and budgetary planning: application of stochastic debt and disaster fund analysis in Austria.. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| s10113-018-1300-3.pd（813KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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