| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41467-018-02985-8 |
| Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action. | |
| Mengel M; Nauels A; Rogelj J; Schleussner CF | |
| 发表日期 | 2018 |
| 出处 | Nature Communications 9 (1) |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2 m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below 1.5 m. We find that each 5-year delay in near-term peaking of CO2 emissions increases median year 2300 sea-level rise estimates by ca. 0.2 m, and extreme sea-level rise estimates at the 95th percentile by up to 1 m. Our results underline the importance of near-term mitigation action for limiting long-term sea-level rise risks. |
| 主题 | Energy (ENE) |
| 关键词 | Climate-change impacts, Cryospheric science, Projection and prediction |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/131379 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mengel M,Nauels A,Rogelj J,et al. Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action.. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| s41467-018-02985-8.p（1245KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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