| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aabdc4 |
| Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050. | |
| van Meijl H; Havlik P; Lotze-Campen H; Stehfest E; Witzke P; Domínguez IP; Bodirsky BL; van Dijk M | |
| 发表日期 | 2018 |
| 出处 | Environmental Research Letters 13 (6): e064021 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Systematic model inter-comparison helps to narrow discrepancies in the analysis of the future impact of climate change on agricultural production. This paper presents a set of alternative scenarios by five global climate and agro-economic models. Covering integrated assessment (IMAGE), partial equilibrium (CAPRI, GLOBIOM, MAgPIE) and computable general equilibrium (MAGNET) models ensures a good coverage of biophysical and economic agricultural features. These models are harmonized with respect to basic model drivers, to assess the range of potential impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector by 2050. Moreover, they quantify the economic consequences of stringent global emission mitigation efforts, such as non-CO2 emission taxes and land-based mitigation options, to stabilize global warming at 2 °C by the end of the century under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. A key contribution of the paper is a vis-à-vis comparison of climate change impacts relative to the impact of mitigation measures. In addition, our scenario design allows assessing the impact of the residual climate change on the mitigation challenge. From a global perspective, the impact of climate change on agricultural production by mid-century is negative but small. A larger negative effect on agricultural production, most pronounced for ruminant meat production, is observed when emission mitigation measures compliant with a 2 °C target are put in place. Our results indicate that a mitigation strategy that embeds residual climate change effects (RCP2.6) has a negative impact on global agricultural production relative to a no-mitigation strategy with stronger climate impacts (RCP6.0). However, this is partially due to the limited impact of the climate change scenarios by 2050. The magnitude of price changes is different amongst models due to methodological differences. Further research to achieve a better harmonization is needed, especially regarding endogenous food and feed demand, including substitution across individual commodities, and endogenous technological change. |
| 主题 | Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15343/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/131403 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | van Meijl H,Havlik P,Lotze-Campen H,et al. Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050.. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| van_Meijl_2018_Envir（5098KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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