| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.5194/gmd-2018-266 |
| Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century. | |
| Gidden M; Smith S; Fujimori S; Luderer G; Kriegler E; van Vuuren DP; van den Berg M | |
| 发表日期 | 2019 |
| 出处 | Geoscientific Model Development Discussions 12 (4): 1443-1475 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories of anthropogenic sources, a key deliverable of the ScenarioMIP experiment within CMIP6. Integrated Assessment Model results for 14 different emissions species and 13 emissions sectors are provided for each scenario with consistent transitions from the historical data used in CMIP6 to future trajectories using automated harmonization before being downscaled to provide higher emission source spatial detail. We find that the scenarios span a wide range of end-of-century radiative forcing values, thus making this set of scenarios ideal for exploring a variety of warming pathways. The set of scenarios are bounded on the low end by a 1.9Wm-2 scenario, ideal for analyzing a world with end-of-century temperatures well below 2°C, and on the high-end by a 8.5Wm-2 scenario, resulting in an increase in warming of nearly 5°C over pre-industrial levels. Between these two extremes, scenarios are provided such that differences between forcing outcomes provide statistically significant regional temperature outcomes to maximize their usefulness for downstream experiments within CMIP6. A wide range of scenario data products are provided for the CMIP6 scientific community including global, regional, and gridded emissions datasets. |
| 主题 | Energy (ENE) ; Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15689/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/131605 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gidden M,Smith S,Fujimori S,et al. Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century.. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| gmd-2018-266.pdf（2270KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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