| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41467-018-07999-w |
| Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet commit us to 1.5 °C warming. | |
| Smith CJ; Forster PM; Allen M; Fuglestvedt J; Millar RJ; Zickfeld K | |
| 发表日期 | 2019 |
| 出处 | Nature Communications 10 (1): e101 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Committed warming describes how much future warming can be expected from historical emissions due to inertia in the climate system. It is usually defined in terms of the level of warming above the present for an abrupt halt of emissions. Owing to socioeconomic constraints, this situation is unlikely, so we focus on the committed warming from present-day fossil fuel assets. Here we show that if carbon-intensive infrastructure is phased out at the end of its design lifetime from the end of 2018, there is a 64% chance that peak global mean temperature rise remains below 1.5 °C. Delaying mitigation until 2030 considerably reduces the likelihood that 1.5 °C would be attainable even if the rate of fossil fuel retirement was accelerated. Although the challenges laid out by the Paris Agreement are daunting, we indicate 1.5 °C remains possible and is attainable with ambitious and immediate emission reduction across all sectors. |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15685/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/131627 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Smith CJ,Forster PM,Allen M,et al. Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet commit us to 1.5 °C warming.. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| s41467-018-07999-w.p（708KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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