G2TT
来源类型Article
规范类型其他
DOI10.1016/j.euroecorev.2018.08.010
The agnostic's response to climate deniers: Price carbon!
van der Ploeg F; Rezai A
发表日期2019
出处European Economic Review 111: 70-84
出版年2019
语种英语
摘要With the election of President Trump, climate deniers feel emboldened and moved from the fringes to the centre of global policy making. We study how an agnostic approach to policy, based on Pascal's wager and allowing for subjective prior probability beliefs about whether climate deniers are right, prices carbon. Using the DICE integrated assessment model, we find that assigning a 10% chance of climate deniers being correct lowers the global price on carbon in 2020 only marginally: from $21 to $19 per ton of carbon dioxide if policymakers apply ‘Nordhaus discounting’ and from $91 to $84 per ton of carbon dioxide if they apply ‘Stern discounting’. Agnostics’ reflection of remaining scientific uncertainty leaves climate policy essentially unchanged. The robustness of an ambitious climate policy also follows from using the max-min or the min-max regret principle. Letting the coefficient of relative ambiguity aversion vary from zero, corresponding to expected utility analysis, to infinity, corresponding to the max-min principle, we show how policy makers deal with fundamental climate model uncertainty if they are prepared to assign prior probabilities to different views of the world being correct. Allowing for an ethical discount rate and a higher market discount rate and for a wide range of sensitivity exercises including damage uncertainty, we show that pricing carbon is the robust response under rising climate scepticism.
主题Risk & ; Resilience (RISK)
关键词Climate model uncertainty Differential discount rates Climate scepticism Robust climate policies Max-min, min-max regret Ambiguity aversion DICE integrated assessment model Ambiguity aversion DICE integrated assessment model
URLhttp://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15545/
来源智库International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/131661
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
van der Ploeg F,Rezai A. The agnostic's response to climate deniers: Price carbon!. 2019.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[van der Ploeg F]的文章
[Rezai A]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[van der Ploeg F]的文章
[Rezai A]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[van der Ploeg F]的文章
[Rezai A]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。