| 来源类型 | Conference or Workshop Item (Poster) |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| Oil Prices and their Impact on Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions. | |
| McCollum D; Jewell J; Krey V; Bazilian M; Fay M; Riahi K | |
| 发表日期 | 2015 |
| 出处 | Systems Analysis 2015 - A Conference in Celebration of Howard Raiffa, 11 -13 November, 2015, Laxenburg, Austria |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Oil prices took a dramatic plunge starting in late 2014 and have remained low ever since. Combined with parallel developments in natural gas supply, this plunge has prompted questions regarding what the “new normal” might mean for energy markets. Will falling oil and gas prices damage the business case for mitigation technologies, such as renewables? Will they stymie incentives to invest in energy efficiency? How do cheaper oil and gas change the outlook for coal and nuclear? Does this spell bad news for efforts to mitigate climate change? While many have weighed in on these questions, no scientific studies have yet addressed them, at least not since the most recent drop in oil prices. A number of economic analyses have studied the very near-term impacts of oil price shocks; meanwhile, scenarios have explored diverging futures where oil prices vary along with multiple other drivers. As yet, however, there has been no explicit and systematic assessment of the longer-term consequences of different oil price futures for global CO2 emissions. Here we present work using the MESSAGE integrated assessment model, wherein we develop and analyze scenarios with wide-ranging price assumptions that are in line with recent market fluctuations. We find that whether oil prices are stubbornly low or consistently high for decades will have a moderate impact on global emissions and society’s ability to mitigate climate change, even though the fuel mix would look quite different in these alternative futures. |
| 主题 | Energy (ENE) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11795/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/132599 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | McCollum D,Jewell J,Krey V,et al. Oil Prices and their Impact on Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions.. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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