| 来源类型 | Conference or Workshop Item (Poster) |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| Reconciling Information from Alternative Climate-economic Models: A Posterior Integration Approach. | |
| Shchiptsova A; Kovalevsky D; Rovenskaya E | |
| 发表日期 | 2015 |
| 出处 | Systems Analysis 2015 - A Conference in Celebration of Howard Raiffa, 11 -13 November, 2015, Laxenburg, Austria |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Studies of complex systems are non-separable from the analysis of partial and imprecise information received from alternative sources. Due to the high complexity of the underlying processes, researches tend to create an ensemble of multiple models, which describe the studied phenomenon using different modeling approaches and primary assumptions. A system analysist deals then with a set of ensemble outcomes (usually represented by a family of probability distributions), which needs to be integrated into one estimate in order to install the ensemble into the modeling chain or provide support for the informed decision making. This research is focused on the application of the posterior integration method (which was originally developed in IIASA [1] to reconcile stochastic estimates from independent sources) to an ensemble of climate-economic models. Our case-study uses two versions of the stylized model SDEM (Structural Dynamic Economic Model) [2], which generate different outputs (including emissions, CO2 concentration, temperature, size of economy) under two scenarios: the business-as-usual scenario and mitigation scenario (under carbon tax). We compare original results with results of posterior integration and results of the traditional approach of averaging model outcomes. |
| 主题 | Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11799/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/132603 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Shchiptsova A,Kovalevsky D,Rovenskaya E. Reconciling Information from Alternative Climate-economic Models: A Posterior Integration Approach.. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| Reconciling%20Inform（491KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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