| 来源类型 | Book Section |
| DOI | 10.1007/978-94-010-1834-0_10 |
| Subjective Probability Forecasting: Some Real World Experiments. | |
| Murphy AH; Winkler RL; Wendt, Dirk; Vlek, Charles | |
| 发表日期 | 1975 |
| 出处 | Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making. Eds. Wendt, Dirk & Vlek, Charles , pp. 177-198 Netherlands: Springer. ISBN 978-94-010-1834-0 DOI: 10.1007/978-94-010-1834-0_10 . |
| 出版年 | 1975 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Three experiments in subjective probability forecasting were designed, and these experiments were conducted in four forecast offices of the U.S. National Weather Service. The first experiment involved credible interval temperature forecasts, the second experiment involved point and area precipitation probability forecasts, and the third experiment involved the effect of guidance forecasts on precipitation probability forecasts. In each case, some background material is presented; the design of the experiment is discussed; some preliminary results of the experiment are presented; and some implications of the experiment and the results for probability forecasting in general and probability forecasting in meteorology in particular are discussed. |
| 主题 | Energy Program (ENP) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14262/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/132863 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Murphy AH,Winkler RL,Wendt, Dirk,et al. Subjective Probability Forecasting: Some Real World Experiments.. 1975. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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