全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Introduction: The need to rethink approaches to population forecasts.

G2TT

来源类型	Book Section
	Introduction: The need to rethink approaches to population forecasts.
	Ahlburg DA; Lutz W; Lutz, W.; Vaupel, J.W.; Ahlburg, D.A.
发表日期	1999
出处	Frontiers of Population Forecasting. Eds. Lutz, W. , Vaupel, J.W. & Ahlburg, D.A. , New York: Population Council.
出版年	1999
语种	英语
摘要	Three major groups call on demographers to produce medium- and long-term population forecasts at the national, regional, or global levels - or produce them themselves. They are: other scientists, government and international agencies, and the general public, including private industry. What these consumers of forecasts demand of demographers, or what demographers think that they should demand, has been changing. The types of forecasts demanded are changing, the relevant dimension of forecasts is expanding, and users are increasingly requiring that forecasts include an indication of the degree of uncertainty of the forecast. Because the demands placed on demographers for population forecasts have been changing, it is an appropriate time to rethink some of their basic aspects. In this volume we address what we see as key issues in population forecasting: in what dimensions and at what levels of disaggregation should forecasts be provided? (And, in particular, are the traditional dimensions of age and sex sufficient?) Should population forecasts take note of limits to population or interactions between population and other variables? And how should uncertainty be treated? We believe that, at least in part, these issues are driven by changes in what users of forecasts want from population forecasters.
主题	World Population (POP)
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/5801/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/133607
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ahlburg DA,Lutz W,Lutz, W.,et al. Introduction: The need to rethink approaches to population forecasts.. 1999.