全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Population, natural resources, and food security: Lessons from comparing full and reduced-form models.

G2TT

来源类型	Book Section
	Population, natural resources, and food security: Lessons from comparing full and reduced-form models.
	Lutz W; Scherbov S; Prskawetz A; Dworak M; Feichtinger G; W.C., W. Lutz, A. Prskawetz,; Sanderson,
发表日期	2002
出处	Population and Environment: Methods of Analysis. Eds. W.C., W. Lutz, A. Prskawetz, & Sanderson, , New York: Population Council.
出版年	2002
语种	英语
摘要	Any analysis of the complex interactions between human population dynamics and the natural environment requires some sort of model, either in one's mind or on paper or on the computer. If the objective is to come up with quantitative estimates of future trends and interactions, explicit mathematical (and mostly computer-based) models are the appropriate tool. Since there are myriads of possible models determined by the choice of variables and parameters, the level of aggregation, and the complexity of the model, the scientist entering this field will have to make a daunting number of choices for which he/she often has little scientific basis. While the choice of variables and the level of regional aggregation tend to be strongly influenced by the specific research question, the issue of model complexity is more ambiguous. Are complex models more or less appropriate than simple ones? This general question has been addressed in different contexts (see, e.g., in the field of population forecasting Rogers 1995b; Lee, Carter, and Tuljapurkar 1995; Sanderson 1999). Here we want to study the question in the context of dynamic population-environment modeling by comparing a recently developed large empirical model to its reduced-form derivative.
主题	World Population (POP)
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/6652/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/133742
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lutz W,Scherbov S,Prskawetz A,et al. Population, natural resources, and food security: Lessons from comparing full and reduced-form models.. 2002.