| 来源类型 | Book Section
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| Energy planning methodologies and tools. |
| Schrattenholzer L
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| 发表日期 | 2004
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| 出处 | Theory and Practices for Energy Education, Training, Regulation and Standards. Eolss Publishers: Developed under the Auspices of the UNESCO.
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| 出版年 | 2004
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | As with any tool, it is useful to look ahead before choosing an energy planning tool. Also, there will usually be choice between different tools that all might, at least in principle, serve the energy planning task to be addressed with the tool. To facilitate efficient selection of a tool, it is important to specify not only the overall purpose of using the tool, but also to formulate specific questions. Here it is argued that one criterion for the selection of a tool should be the simplest and gives relevant answers to the questions raised. In many situations of energy planning, uncertainty is an important aspect. Although stochastic models address uncertainty by design, it should be remembered that for this type of models to be really useful, the probability distributions built into the model should be known, at least within reasonable limits. If they are not, the uncertainty is just shifted from the model parameters to the parameters of a class of probability distributions. Care must also be taken when assessing model validity. The so-called "back-casting" (running the model for the past to check whether it correctly produces actually observed values) fails to produce much evidence if it is possible to specify model parameters with the benefit of hindsight. One strategy to stay clear of the pitfalls of modeling would be to attempt to learn from a model in a way that the lessons learned would be explainable without explaining the model. |
| 主题 | Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS)
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| 关键词 | Energy policy
Models
Planning tools
Scenarios
Optimization
Simulation
Uncertainty
Reserves and resources
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| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/7214/
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| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/133816
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Schrattenholzer L. Energy planning methodologies and tools.. 2004.
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