全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): China's uncertain demographic present and future.

G2TT

来源类型	Book Section
DOI	10.1553/populationyearbook2007s37
	China's uncertain demographic present and future.
	Lutz W; Scherbov S; Cao G-Y; Ren Q; Zheng X-Y
发表日期	2007
出处	Vienna Yearbook of Population Research. pp. 37-59 Vienna, Austria: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften. DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2007s37 .
出版年	2007
语种	英语
摘要	This paper applies methods of probabilistic population forecasting to assess the range of uncertainty of Chinas future population trends. Unlike previous applications of probabilistic population projections that consider stochastic future fertility, mortality and migration, this paper will also account for the significant uncertainty of Chinas current fertility level (with published figures ranging from 1.2 to 2.3) and the related uncertainties about the sex ratio at birth (with estimates from 1.06 to above 1.2) and the size of the youngest cohorts in the 2000 census. The model applied in this paper will be based on assumed uncertainty ranges for current conditions, in addition to the probabilistic treatment of future trends. Given the sheer size of Chinas population, these significant uncertainties about current conditions are of high importance not only for the future population of China but also for considerations on a global scale.
主题	World Population (POP) ; Forestry (FOR)
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/8162/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/133965
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lutz W,Scherbov S,Cao G-Y,et al. China's uncertain demographic present and future.. 2007.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
China%27s%20uncertai（297KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览