全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Integrated assessment of crop management portfolios in adapting to climate change in the Marchfeld region.

G2TT

来源类型	Book Section
	Integrated assessment of crop management portfolios in adapting to climate change in the Marchfeld region.
	Strauss F; Fuss S; Szolgayova J; Schmid E; Eder, M; Poechtrager, S
发表日期	2011
出处	Jahrbuch der OeGA - Band 19(2). Eds. Eder, M & Poechtrager, S , Vienna: Fakultas Verlag. ISBN 978-3-7089-0662-1
出版年	2011
语种	英语
摘要	Portfolio optimization is an adequate tool to find optimal crop management options in adapting to climate change. The risk farmers have to face can be caused by different sources. In our study, we focus on the risk arising from unknown weather conditions. Therefore, we developed stochastic climate change scenarios for the Marchfeld region. Two portfolio models have been applied in the time periods 2008-2020, 2021-2030 and 2031-2040: a traditional non-linear mean-variance (E-V) model and a model using the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) as risk metric. Investigated crops are corn, winter wheat, sunflower and spring barley with different crop management alternatives. Minimum tillage appears in all portfolios. We found a decreasing share of winter wheat that gets partially substituted by sunflower over the time periods. When including environmental constraints (soil organic carbon content, nitrate leaching) the reverse effect on the resulting portfolio shares is observed with corn being included. The E-V model reveals more diversification with respect to the crops, whereas the CVaR model shows more diversification with respect to crop management options.
主题	Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
关键词	Climate change Portfolio optimization in agriculture Risk management
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9687/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/134168
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Strauss F,Fuss S,Szolgayova J,et al. Integrated assessment of crop management portfolios in adapting to climate change in the Marchfeld region.. 2011.