全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Modeling technological change under increasing returns and uncertainty.

G2TT

来源类型	Book Section
DOI	10.1007/978-3-642-22884-1_6
	Modeling technological change under increasing returns and uncertainty.
	Gritsevskii A; Ermoliev Y; Ermoliev, Y; Makowski, M; Marti, K
发表日期	2012
出处	Managing Safety of Heterogeneous Systems. Eds. Ermoliev, Y , Makowski, M & Marti, K , Heidelberg: Springer. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-22884-1_6 .
出版年	2012
语种	英语
摘要	The aim of this paper is to analyze methodological challenges involved in modeling of endogenous technological changes with increasing returns and uncertainties by using stylized versions of models. Realistic versions of these models are analytically intractable making it difficult to comprehend the interplay of different assumptions on their outcomes. We demonstrate path-dependences of myopic evolutionary approaches, the infeasibility of straightforward "trial-and-error" processes, and the need for adequate long-term policy assistance. We also show why increasing returns and uncertainties radically offset the rationale for postponed investments in new technologies and how stochastic models cope with systemic risks implicitly induced by interdependencies among uncertainties, technologies, the structure of models, and decisions. The paper demonstrates possible misleading character of alternative models of uncertainties. It shows the need for proper modeling of long-term random horizons, corresponding discounting, security constraints and requirements of robustness by using systemic valuations and "distribution free" stochastic programming/optimization.
主题	Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA)
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/10086/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/134224
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gritsevskii A,Ermoliev Y,Ermoliev, Y,et al. Modeling technological change under increasing returns and uncertainty.. 2012.