| 来源类型 | Book Section |
| DOI | 10.1007/978-94-007-2226-2_5 |
| Dams and catastrophe risk: Discounting in long term planning. | |
| Ermolieva T; Ermoliev Y; Obersteiner M; Makowski M; Fischer G; Amendola, A; Ermolieva, T; Linnerooth-Bayer, J; Mechler, R | |
| 发表日期 | 2013 |
| 出处 | Integrated Catastrophe Risk Modeling: Supporting Policy Processes. Eds. Amendola, A , Ermolieva, T , Linnerooth-Bayer, J & Mechler, R , Dordrecht: Springer. DOI: 10.1007/978-94-007-2226-2_5 . |
| 出版年 | 2013 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Planning dams for regional economic developments and social welfare without addressing issues related to catastrophic risks may lead to dangerous clustering of people, production facilities, and infrastructure in hazard-prone areas. The concerned region may be exposed to very large losses from the low probability-high consequence event of a dam break. Endogeneity of risks on land use decisions represents new challenges for dam development planning. In this chapter we discuss an integrated risk management model that allows the planners to deal in a consistent way with the multiple aspects, views and objectives of dam projects. We introduce the notion of robust decisions, which are considered safe, flexible, and optimal because they account for multiple criteria, risks and heterogeneities of locations and stakeholders. Specific attention is paid to the choice of proper discount factors to address long-term planning perspectives of dam construction and maintenance. We illustrate how the misperception of proper discounting in the presence of potential catastrophic events may overlook the need for dam maintenance and undermine regional safety. The proposed model can be used as a learning-by-simulation tool for designing robust regulations and policies. |
| 主题 | Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA) ; Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) ; Exploratory and Special projects (ESP) |
| 关键词 | Dams and development Equity and efficience Discount factors Catastrophe risks Multi-agent decision making Safety constraints Robust decisions |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/10603/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/134295 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ermolieva T,Ermoliev Y,Obersteiner M,et al. Dams and catastrophe risk: Discounting in long term planning.. 2013. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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