| 来源类型 | Book Section |
| A metric for the prognostic outreach of scenarios: Learning from the past to establish a standard in applied systems analysis. | |
| Jonas M; Żebrowski P; Rovenskaya E | |
| 发表日期 | 2015 |
| 出处 | Proceedings, 4th International Workshop on Uncertainty in Atmospheric Emissions, 7-9 October 2015, Krakow, Poland. pp. 78-89 Warsaw, Poland: Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences. ISBN 83-894-7557-X |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Our study concerns retrospective learning, the characteristic feature of which is that prognostic uncertainty increases the more the further we look into the future. RL seeks to establish a metric for the outreach of prognostic scenarios. The purpose behind RL is to provide an easy-to-apply indicator, which informs non-experts about the time in the future at which a prognostic scenario ceases to be in accordance (for whatever reasons) with the system’s past. Ideally, this indicator should be derived concomitantly with building a prognostic model. RL concerns the limitations of predictions and prognostic scenarios. |
| 主题 | Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA) |
| 关键词 | 4th International Workshop on Uncertainty in Atmospheric Emissions |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11662/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/134432 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jonas M,Żebrowski P,Rovenskaya E. A metric for the prognostic outreach of scenarios: Learning from the past to establish a standard in applied systems analysis.. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| policy_impacts_1.pdf（1328KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
| 4thWorkshopProceedin（14026KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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