| 来源类型 | Book Section |
| The end of population aging in high-income countries. | |
| Sanderson W; Scherbov S; Gerland P | |
| 发表日期 | 2018 |
| 出处 | Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2018. Vienna, Austria: Austrian Academy of Sciences. |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Will the population of today’s high-income countries continue to age throughout the remainder of the century? We answer this question by combining two methodologies, Bayesian hierarchical probabilistic population forecasting and the use of prospective ages, which are chronological ages adjusted for changes in life expectancy. We distinguish two variants of measures of aging: those that depend on fixed chronological ages and those that use prospective ages. Conventional measures do not, for example, distinguish between 65-year-olds in 2000 and 65- year-olds in 2100. In making forecasts of population aging over long periods of time, ignoring changes in the characteristics of people can lead to misleading results. It is preferable to use measures based on prospective ages in which expected changes in life expectancy are taken into account. We present probabilistic forecasts of population aging that use conventional and prospective measures for high-income countries as a group. The probabilistic forecasts based on conventional measures of aging show that the probability that aging will continue throughout the century is essentially one. In contrast, the probabilistic forecasts based on prospective measures of population aging show that population aging will almost certainly come to end well before the end of the century. Using prospective measures of population aging, we show that aging in high-income countries is likely a transitory phenomenon. |
| 主题 | World Population (POP) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15768/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/134670 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sanderson W,Scherbov S,Gerland P. The end of population aging in high-income countries.. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| Sanderson.pdf（1771KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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