| 来源类型 | Other
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| Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts of Natural Disasters: Are There Any? |
| Hochrainer-Stigler S
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| 发表日期 | 2009
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| 出处 | Policy Research Working Paper Series 4968, The World Bank, Washington, DC, USA DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-4968 .
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| 出版年 | 2009
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | There is an ongoing debate on whether disasters cause significant macroeconomic impacts and are truly a potential impediment to economic development. This paper aims to assess whether and by what mechanisms disasters have the potential to cause significant GDP impacts. The analysis first studies the couterfactual versus the observed gross domestic product. Second, the analysis assesses disaster impact as a function of hazard, exposure of assets, and, importantly, vulnerability. In a medium-term analysis (up to 5 years after the disaster event), comparing counterfactual with observed gross domestic product, the authors find that natural disasters on average can lead to negative consequences. Although the negative effects may be small, they can become more pronounced depending mainly on the size of the shock. Furthermore, the authors test a large number of vulnerability predictors and find that greater aid and inflows of remittances reduce adverse macroeconomic consequences, and that direct losses appear most critical. |
| 主题 | Risk and Vulnerability (RAV)
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| 关键词 | Natural disasters
Macroeconomic consequences
Time-series analysis
ARIMA process
Vulnerability
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| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9010/
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| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/135287
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Hochrainer-Stigler S. Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts of Natural Disasters: Are There Any?. 2009.
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文件名：
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XO-09-035.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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