全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Climate change impacts and mitigation in the developing world: An Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors. Policy Research Working Paper No. WPS 7477.

G2TT

来源类型	Other
规范类型	其他
	Climate change impacts and mitigation in the developing world: An Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors. Policy Research Working Paper No. WPS 7477.
	Havlik P; Valin H; Gusti M; Schmid E; Leclère D; Forsell N; Herrero M; Khabarov N
发表日期	2015
出处	The World Bank Group , Washington, D.C., USA.
出版年	2015
语种	英语
摘要	This paper conducts an integrated assessment of climate change impacts and climate mitigation on agricultural commodity markets and food availability in low- and middle-income countries. The analysis uses the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM to generate scenarios to 2080. The findings show that climate change effects on the agricultural sector will increase progressively over the century. By 2030, the impact of climate change on food consumption is moderate but already twice as large in a world with high inequalities than in a more equal world. In the long run, impacts could be much stronger, with global average calorie losses of 6 percent by 2050 and 14 percent by 2080. A mitigation policy to stabilize climate below 2 degrees C uniformly applied to all regions as a carbon tax would also result in a 6 percent reduction in food availability by 2050 and 12 percent reduction by 2080 compared to the reference scenario. To avoid more severe impacts of climate change mitigation on development than climate change itself, revenue from carbon pricing policies will need to be redistributed appropriately. Overall, the projected effects of climate change and mitigation on agricultural markets raise important issues for food security in the long run, but remain more limited in the medium term horizon of 2030. Thus, there are opportunities for low- and middle- income countries to pursue immediate development needs and thus prepare for later periods when adaptation needs and mitigation efforts will become the greatest.
主题	Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11657/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/135679
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Havlik P,Valin H,Gusti M,et al. Climate change impacts and mitigation in the developing world: An Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors. Policy Research Working Paper No. WPS 7477.. 2015.

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