| 来源类型 | Other
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| 规范类型 | 其他
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| Lifting the US Crude Oil Export Ban: A Numerical Partial-Equilibrium Analysis. |
| Langer L; Holz F
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| 发表日期 | 2016
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| 出处 | DIW Discussion Paper 1548. Berlin, Germany
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| 出版年 | 2016
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | The upheaval in global crude oil markets and the boom in oil production from shale plays in North America have brought scrutiny on the export ban for crude oil in the United States. This paper examines the global flows and strategic refinery adjustments in a spatial, game-theoretic partial-equilibrium model. We consider de- tailed supply chain infrastructure with multiple crude oil qualities (supply), distinct oil products (demand), as well as specific refinery configurations and modes of transport (mid-stream). Investments in production capacity and infrastructure are endogenous. We compare two development pathways for the global oil market: one projection retaining the US export ban, and a counterfactual scenario lifting the export restrictions. Lifting the US crude ban, we find significant expansion of US sweet crude exports. In the US refinery sector, more heavy sour crude is imported and transformed. While US producers gain, the profits of US refiners decrease, due to reduced market distortions and a more efficient resource allocation. Countries importing US sweet crude benefit from higher product output, while avoiding costly refinery investments. Producers of heavy sour crude (e.g. the Middle East) are incentivised to climb up the value chain to defend their market share and maintain their dominant position. |
| 主题 | Energy (ENE)
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| 关键词 | energy system model, crude oil market, US crude export ban, refining capacity, infrastructure investment
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| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11958/
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| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/135702
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Langer L,Holz F. Lifting the US Crude Oil Export Ban: A Numerical Partial-Equilibrium Analysis.. 2016.
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文件名：
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dp1548.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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