| 来源类型 | Other |
| Modelling SDG scenarios for Educational Attainment andDevelopment. CESDEG: Education for all Global Monitoring Report (EFA-GMR). | |
| Barakat B; Bengtsson S; Muttarak R; Kebede E | |
| 发表日期 | 2016 |
| 出处 | Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU) |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The scenarios of educational expansion underlying the population projections presented here result from a further refinement of the education model presented in Lutz et al. (2014). In summary, we project the share of the population ever reaching or exceeding a given attainment level. This is done seperately by country, and gender, but with ‘shrinkage’ within a Bayesian framework (with weakly informative priors). The mean expansion trajectories are modelled as random walks with drift (and potential mean reversion) and independent noise at a probit-transformed scale. The trend parameters are estimated based on reconstructed attainment histories, and extrapolated, subject to additional and some exogenously imposed convergence within regions and between females and males. Under the target scenarios, SDG targets are treated as ‘future data’ (in other words, target trajectories are modeled looking back from 2030 under the assumption that the target will have been met), with a potential trend break in 2015. |
| 主题 | World Population (POP) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13796/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/135717 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Barakat B,Bengtsson S,Muttarak R,et al. Modelling SDG scenarios for Educational Attainment andDevelopment. CESDEG: Education for all Global Monitoring Report (EFA-GMR).. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| 15-148_CESDEG_FINAL%（2230KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
| 15-148_CESDEG_FINAL%（336KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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