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来源类型 | Other |
Climate, Conflict and Forced Migration. | |
Brottrager M; Crespo Cuaresma J | |
发表日期 | 2018 |
出处 | WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna , Vienna, Austria. |
出版年 | 2018 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | Despite the lack of robust empirical evidence, a growing number of media reports attempt to link climate change to the ongoing violent conflicts in Syria and other parts of the world, as well as to the migration crisis in Europe. Exploiting bilateral data on asylum seeking applications for 157 countries over the period 2006-2015, we assess the determinants of refugee flows using a gravity model which accounts for endogenous selection in order to examine the causal link between climate, conflict and forced migration. Our results indicate that climatic conditions, by affecting drought severity and the likelihood of armed conflict, played a significant role as an explanatory factor for asylum seeking in the period 2011-2015. The effect of climate on conflict occurrence is particularly relevant for countries in Western Asia in the period 2010-2012 during when many countries were undergoing political transformation. This finding suggests that the impact of climate on conflict and asylum seeking flows is limited to specific time period and contexts. |
主题 | World Population (POP) |
关键词 | forced migration, climate change, conflict |
URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15571/ |
来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/135800 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Brottrager M,Crespo Cuaresma J. Climate, Conflict and Forced Migration.. 2018. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
wp_272.pdf(1068KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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