G2TT
来源类型Working Papers
规范类型论文
来源IDWP-2015-003
The Use and Misuse of Models for Climate Policy
Robert S. Pindyck
发表日期2015-04
出版年2015
语种英语
摘要

Robert S. Pindyck, April 2015

In recent articles, I have argued that integrated assessment models (IAMs) have flaws that make them close to useless as tools for policy analysis. IAM-based analyses of climate policy create a perception of knowledge and precision that is illusory, and can fool policy- makers into thinking that the forecasts the models generate have some kind of scientific legitimacy. But some have claimed that we need some kind of model, and that IAMs can be structured and used in ways that correct for their shortcomings. For example, it has been argued that although we know little or nothing about key relationships in the model, we can get around this problem by attaching probability distributions to various parameters and then simulating the model using Monte Carlo methods. I argue that this would buy us nothing, and that a simpler and more transparent approach to the design of climate change policy is preferable. I briefly outline what that approach would look like.

Keywords: Environmental policy, GHG abatement, uncertainty, outcome distributions, fat-tailed distributions, global warming, climate change, economic impact, catastrophic outcomes.

关键词Environmental policy GHG abatement uncertainty outcome distributions fat-tailed distributions global warming climate change economic impact catastrophic outcomes
URLhttp://ceepr.mit.edu/publications/working-papers/622
来源智库Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (United States)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/172776
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Robert S. Pindyck. The Use and Misuse of Models for Climate Policy. 2015.
条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小 资源类型 版本类型 开放类型 使用许可
2015-003.pdf(397KB)智库出版物 限制开放CC BY-NC-SA浏览
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Robert S. Pindyck]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Robert S. Pindyck]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Robert S. Pindyck]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
文件名: 2015-003.pdf
格式: Adobe PDF

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。