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来源类型 | Working Papers |
规范类型 | 论文 |
New climate scenario framework implementation in the GCAM integrated assessment model | |
Iñigo Capellán-Pérez; Mikel González-Eguino; Iñaki Arto; Alberto Ansuategi; Kishore Dhavala; Pralit Patel; Anil Markandya | |
发表日期 | 2014-08-27 |
出处 | BC3 WORKING PAPER SERIES : 2014-04 |
出版年 | 2014 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | This report has various objectives: (i) to provide an overview of the climate Integrated Assessment approach; (ii) to describe the Global Climate Assessment Model (GCAM); (iii) to outline the new IPCC scenario framework represented by the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs); and (iv) to document the implementation of the new scenario framework in version 3.1 of the GCAM. The GCAM baseline is thus calibrated to the “Middle of the Road” or SSP2 scenario using the data calculated by the OECD. The implications of this scenario are important because it will probably become a standard scenario among the research community. The exogenous variables, the implications for income convergence and the results in terms of energy mix, emissions, temperature and radiative forcing of SSP2 implementation in the GCAM are presented at both global and regional levels. These results are also compared with the GCAM-Reference baseline and the IPCC SRES representative scenarios. Then the feasibility, cost and implications of a climate policy that seeks to stabilize temperature at 2ºC (2.6 W/m2 RCP) using a global uniform carbon tax are analyzed. The study is completed by a decomposition analysis that enables the main driving factors of CO2 variation to be identified, including population, affluence, energy intensity, carbon intensity and fossil-fuel share of the energy mix. Finally we draw some conclusions and highlight points for further research. |
关键词 | SSPs Integrated Assessment Model long-run projections energy systems climate stabilization. |
URL | https://www.bc3research.org/workingpapers/2014-04.html |
来源智库 | Basque Centre for Climate Change (Spain) |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/177021 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Iñigo Capellán-Pérez,Mikel González-Eguino,Iñaki Arto,et al. New climate scenario framework implementation in the GCAM integrated assessment model. 2014. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
BC3WP201404.pdf(2263KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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