G2TT
来源类型Policy Briefings
规范类型简报
来源IDPB 2012/01
Low Climate Stabilisation under Diverse Growth and Convergence Scenarios
Anil Markandya; Mikel González-Eguino; Patrick Criqui and Silvana Mima
发表日期2012-06-27
出处BC3 Policy Briefings
出版年2012
语种英语
摘要

In the last decade, a few papers have analysed the consequences of achieving the greenhouse gas concentration levels necessary to maintain global temperature increases below 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. Most models and scenarios assume that future trends in global GDP will be similar to the growth experienced in the past century, which would imply multiplying current output nineteen fold in this century. However, natural resource and environmental constraints suggest that future global economic growth may not be so high. Furthermore, the environmental implications of such growth depend on how it is distributed across countries. This paper studies the implications on GHG abatement policies of different assumptions on global GDP growth and convergence levels. A partial equilibrium model (POLES) of the world´s energy system is used to provide detailed projections up to 2050 for the different regions of the world. The results suggest that while low stabilisation is technically feasible and economically viable for the world in all the scenarios considered, it is more likely to occur with more modest global growth. Convergence in living standards on the other hand places greater pressures in terms of the required reduction in emissions. In general we find that there are major differences between regions in terms of the size and the timing of abatement costs and economic impact.

关键词Climate policy Economic growth Convergence Energy forecasting Abatement cost Partial Equilibrium models Energy systems.
URLhttps://www.bc3research.org/policybriefings/2012-01.html
来源智库Basque Centre for Climate Change (Spain)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/177054
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Anil Markandya,Mikel González-Eguino,Patrick Criqui and Silvana Mima. Low Climate Stabilisation under Diverse Growth and Convergence Scenarios. 2012.
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BC3_PB_2012_01.pdf(198KB)智库出版物 限制开放CC BY-NC-SA浏览
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