| 来源类型 | Climate Change Policy Research |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| A korean environmental model build-up road-map | |
| Kang, Sung Won | |
| 发表日期 | 2013-12-31 |
| 出版年 | 2013 |
| 语种 | 英语 ; Korean |
| 摘要 | In this report, we planned a road-map to build up an IAM (Integrated Assessment Model) for a medium-long tern Environmental Outlook of Korea, and provided a case study using our IAM. Our IAM is designed to perform 'forecasting' and 'evaluation' function-two typical functions of IAM in Environmental Outlook literature. Also we constructed a preliminary version of our IAM following our road map, and put it into use to provide GHG and Air pollutant emission forcasts up to 2030. From environmental Outlook reasearch literature, we identified two typical functions of IAM in Environmental Outlook literature-'forecasting' and 'evaluation'. First, IAMs provide forecasts of future environmental variables considering the effect of socio-economic trend. These forecasts are used to identify future challenges for environmental policy. Second, IAMs preformed counter-factual experiments on the effect of possible environmental policies to face future challenges, which is essential for ex ante policy evaluation. Up to now, Korean environmental planning has not used this comprehensive IAM. We planned our road-map to build up Korean IAM capable of forecasting and ex ante policy evaluation. Our IAM consists of four main module-'Emission'-'Cycle'-'Climate Change'-'Effect'. We planed to build two models- A Large-size model for accurate for forecasting, and a Simple model for evaluation. In our large-size model, each module has structural form equations representing scientific foundations, and these modules are soft-linked. Our simple model shares 'Emission' module with Large-size model, but other modules are scaled down to reduced form equations. The 'Emission' module and reduced form equations of other module consists a whole nonlinear equation system. To meet the needs for policy evaluation, the 'effect' module consists of five sub-modules representing main environmental policy goals of Korea-Water demand & supply/Water Pollution/ Air Pollution/ Biodiversity/ Waste. Our Korean IAM has the following four characteristics. First, our IAM is capable of stochastic simulation representing uncertainties in Environmental Outlook research. Second, technology choice follows top-down model, but we would build a bottom-up model for energy technology choice to allow more diverse technology. Third, regarding regional analysis, our Simple model has two versions for national level analysis and large district level analysis. And each module in our Large-size model has two versions-Stand Alone version and Linked version. Liked version is the one actually linked to Large-size model. This version is capable of large-district level analysis. Stand Alone version shares the same structure with Linked version, but this version can perform smaller region level analysis proper to policy demands. Forth, to incorporate feedback effect, our model has one 'Social Environmental Cost' function and four 'damage function's. Each damage function describes the damage on agricultural productivity, the shock on energy supply, land loss, health loss due to environmental change. The 'Social Environmental Cost' covers all residual costs of environmental change not covered by four damage functions. The road-map to build up our IAM is planned as follows. The 'Emission' module of our Simple model is built up upon CGE model of KEI in three steps. In the first step, the current will be extended to estimate industry emission estimation, perform stochastic simulation, and evaluate class-specific effects of environmental policies. The first step will be completed by 2014. In the second step, non-industrial emission estimation will be added and endogenous land-use solution will be included in the model. This step will be completed in 2014~15. In the third step, energy technology choice bottom-up model and large-district model will be constructed. This step will be completed in 2016~17. The rest of Simple model, which are in reduced form, will be constructed when the corresponding Large-size mo |
| 来源智库 | Korea Evironment Institute (Republic of Korea) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/198521 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kang, Sung Won. A korean environmental model build-up road-map. 2013. |
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| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| 기í2013_01_ê°ì±（3993KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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