| 来源类型 | Climate Change Policy Research |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| An environmental outlook of Korea - KEI integrated assessment model build up | |
| Kang, Sung Won | |
| 发表日期 | 2014-12-31 |
| 出版年 | 2014 |
| 语种 | 英语 ; Korean |
| 摘要 | In this report, we build up a Korean Integrated Assessment Model following IAM roadmap from Kang et al. (2013). According to Kang et al. (2013) roadmap, our IAM has two versions-The Big model and The Simple model. The Big model consists of structural form equations for four modules-Emission-Cycle-Climate Change- Effect-consisting IAM. The Simple model shares Emission module with The Big model, but for other modules, it has reduced form equations mimicking The Big model counterpart. For The Big model, this report checked the links between modules. And for The Simple model, this report expanded the emission forecasting from industrial emission to non-industrial emission. For The Big model, the roadmap requires to map out linking strategy between modules and list up required adjustments of each module for the linking in the first year. We checked if the output of one module can be used as input data for other modules, and if not, what adjustments should be done to match them. We focused on the links between Emission and Climate Change, Emission and Air Quality in Effect module, and Emission and Water Quality in Effect module. Regarding Climate Change module, we decided to replace the module with IPCC RCP scenario climate estimates. Since Climate Change is global phenomenon, Korean GHG emission wouldn't have much effect on Korean Climate. The Korean Climate, therefore, couldn't be determined endogenously within Korean IAM model. So, we replaced Climate Change module with reliable forecasts. In Effect module, we choose widely used in Korean environmental researches and open-source models as our potential candidates-CMAQ air quality model, QAUL2K water quality model, and WASP water quality model. And we checked if these models can be linked with our Emission module based on national CGE model. We found that standalone linking modules connecting air quality model and CGE model, and water quality model and CGE model are needed respectively. And the Emission model should be modified to produce National and Large Cities and Locals emission estimates from each emitter in official pollution statistics. Both air quality model and water quality model needs emission data disaggregated to very finely determined grid, and exact location of point emitters. But CGE model cannot produce smaller than Large Cities and Locals level emission estimates. So, a linking module which can disaggregate emission estimates from CGE model to be used in air quality model and water quality model, provide location of point emitters, and predict the evolution of the composition of emission and the location of point emitters in the medium and long term is required. For The Simple model, we expanded the emission forecast coverage from industrial emission to household emission-especially the emission from household auto-drive and housing. With this model, we estimated GHG , Air pollutants, and Water pollutants emission up to 2030. We also analyzed the effect of carbon tax. Without carbon tax, GHG emission would increase by 1.8%/yr, Air pollutants emission would increase by 3.2~3.3%/yr, Water pollutants emission by 1.9~2.1%/yr Our carbon tax was set to keep GHG emission under 70% of BAU emission from 2020 on. In this report, we concentrated on the effect of the carbon tax on household emission. We found that the carbon tax on household wouldn't make much difference in total emission, but it would promote low-carbon household consumption. Also we found that carbon tax would cut down Air pollutant emission by 2.9~12.6% of BAU emission, but it wouldn't cut down Water pollutant emission much. This results may suggest that the carbon tax would promote less energy intensive industries, which tends to have higher water pollutant emission. |
| 来源智库 | Korea Evironment Institute (Republic of Korea) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/198531 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kang, Sung Won. An environmental outlook of Korea - KEI integrated assessment model build up. 2014. |
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| 기í2014_01_ê°ì±（4242KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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