| 来源类型 | Climate Change Policy Research |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| Climate change response strategies based on assessment and prediction of health impacts from abnormal temperatures | |
| Hyun-Joo Bae, Dawoon Jung | |
| 发表日期 | 2017-12-31 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 ; Korean |
| 摘要 | In this study, we assessed health effects of climate change and abnormal temperatures using apparent temperature (AT) and temperature deviation index (TDI). Based on our results, we calculated future health casualties according to various climate change scenarios, and proposed adaptation strategies accordingly. As a first step in assessing health effects due to abnormal temperature, we analyzed the trends in abnormally high and low temperatures in seven major cities of Korea, based on the meteorological data from 1980 to 2015. At the same time, we estimated abnormal temperatures, and temperature trends according to several RCP scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5). Next, we assessed the effects of AT on mortality in six major cities from 1992 to 2015. Our analysis showed that in all ages and in elderly (>65 years), increase in AT was significantly associated with increase in general mortality in Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, and Gwangju. Similar analysis using TDI showed that increase in TDI was significantly associated with general mortality increase in all ages in Seoul, Incheon, Gwangju, and general mortality in elderly (>65 years) inhabiting Incheon and Gwangju. Based on the analyses above, we calculated future excess mortality and associated costs in Seoul during summer time (May to September) from 2020 to 2100 according to the climate change scenarios. Estimated excess mortality according to RCP 4.5 was 339(95% CI: 239~441), 492(95% CI: 353~632), and 793(95% CI: 595~996) in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2090s respectively. Estimated cost based on summer AT and TDI were 122.78 billion ￦(95% CI: 84.70 billion ￦ ~161.42 billion ￦), 144.37 billion ￦(95% CI: 103.94 billion ￦ ~185.36 billion ￦), and 188.36 billion ￦(95% CI: 139.31 billion ￦ ~238.10 billion ￦) in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2090s respectively. Lastly, we reviewed policies related to abnormal temperatures, both in Korea and in other countries. Domestically, we focused on heat wave alerts, heat wave forecast services, and general heat wave response systems managed by central government as well as regional government. Additionally, we reviewed the current situation onf climate change adaptation strategy, focusing on the public health area. In parallel, we reviewed policies related to abnormal health in other countries. Based on the analysis and the reviews performed, we propose (1) development of heat wave index taking into account regional differences in health effects; (2) weather forecast utilizing TDI; and (3) year-round health effect monitoring system linked to climate change adaptation strategy. |
| 来源智库 | Korea Evironment Institute (Republic of Korea) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/198544 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hyun-Joo Bae, Dawoon Jung. Climate change response strategies based on assessment and prediction of health impacts from abnormal temperatures. 2017. |
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| 기í2017_06_ë°°í（14755KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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