全球智库信息集成服务系统

This paper estimates the impact of changes in future exposure to hot and cold days on the demand for electricity, natural gas, and fuel oil in four different sectors (residential, industry, commercial and public services, and agriculture) at the global scale. We use an econometric model to infer the short-run and long-run sensitivity of final energy use to historical variations in exposure to hot, cold, dry and humid days. The estimated responses provide insights into the potential impacts of climate change on the final use of energy and into the adaptation responses along the intensive and extensive margin. This paper improves over prior global studies by proposing a framework for evaluating climate change impacts that can characterize the spatial variability within countries at the global scale. We illustrate the implications on future energy demand by combining the behaviors inferred from the past with the future climatic shifts of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as predicted by the CMCC Global Circulation Model (GCM) and with the future socioeconomic trends for population and income growth of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSPs).