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来源类型 | Technical notes |
规范类型 | 报告 |
来源ID | RP0267 |
RP0267 – Building Uncertainty into the Adaptation Cost Estimation in Integrated Assessment Models | |
Anil Markandya; Enrica De Cian; Laurent Drouet; Josué M. Polanco-Martìnez; Francesco Bosello | |
发表日期 | 2016-02 |
出版年 | 2016 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | This paper proposes an operationally simple and easily general- izable methodology to incorporate climate change damage uncertainty into Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). Uncertainty is transformed into a risk-premium, damage-correction, region-specific factor by extracting dam- age distribution means and variances from an ensemble of socio economic and climate change scenarios. This risk premium quantifies what society would be willing to pay to insure against the uncertainty of the damages, and it can be considered an add-up to the standard “average damage”. Our computations show the addition to be significant, but highly sensitive to the coefficient of relative risk aversion. Once the climate change damage func- tion incorporates the risk premium into the model, results show a substantial increase in both mitigation and adaptation, reflecting a more conservative at- titude by the social planner. Interestingly, adaptation is stimulated more than mitigation in the first half of the century, while the situation reverses after- wards. Over the century, the risk premium correction fosters more mitigation, which doubles, than adaptation, which rises by about 80%.
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URL | https://www.cmcc.it/publications/rp0267-building-uncertainty-into-the-adaptation-cost-estimation-in-integrated-assessment-models |
来源智库 | Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Italy) |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/200461 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Anil Markandya,Enrica De Cian,Laurent Drouet,等. RP0267 – Building Uncertainty into the Adaptation Cost Estimation in Integrated Assessment Models. 2016. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
rp0267-ecip-02-2016.(1514KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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