| 摘要 | 【General Aims】 ENERGYA has three main objectives:
1) Produce novel statistical and econometric analyses for OECD and major emerging countries (Brazil, Mexico, India, and Indonesia) to shed light on the underlying mechanisms driving energy use.
2) Infer future potential impacts from long-run climate and socioeconomic changes building on historical empirical evidence.
3) Analyse the macro and distributional implications of adaptation-driven energy use with an economy-energy model characterising the distribution of energy use dynamics across and within countries. 【CMCC role】 CMCC is partner of the project.【Activies】 The first year 2018 will focus on building a dataset combining subnational statistics and surveys on energy use with high-resolution geographic data, including climatic variables, with a focus on selected OECD countries, Europe, and some key emerging economies, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico. Country-experts from these four emerging economies will be responsible of the data collection and data cleaning process for those countries. To facilitate data exchange, the team will work on the development of a data template and will set-up a platform for data exchange. A data management plan describing which data will be produced and made available will also be prepared.
The second year 2019 will begin the empirical analysis of the data collected in order to produce new evidence on energy use behaviour in relation to weather shocks and climate conditions across different countries, sectors, and socio-economic conditions.
The third year 2020 will use the evidence from the past to portray the future energy needs for adaptation under a range of uncertain climatic and socio-economic scenarios, and it will develop a CGE model with a representation of multiple households to assess the macroeconomic, environmental, and distributional consequences of adaptation-driven energy use.
The fourth and the fifth year (2021, 2022) will use a scenario framework that leverages the integrated assessment scenario framework to project future energy demand driven by combinations of socioeconomic and climate factors. A dedicated economy-energy computable general equilibrium model (CGE) capable of projecting energy needs under future climate and economy will be developed to assess the macro (on the economy and the environment) and distributional implications. Dissemination and communication activities will be carried out throughout the entire duration of the project.
Partners
CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici【Expected results】Develop an interdisciplinary and scalable research framework integrating data and methods from economics with geography, climate science, and integrated assessment modelling to provide new knowledge concerning heterogeneity in energy use across countries, sectors, socioeconomic conditions and income groups;
Link energy statistics and energy survey data with high spatial resolution data from climate science and remote sensing, including high-resolution spatial data on meteorology, population and economic activity distribution, electrification, and the built environment.
Assess the broad implications adaptation-driven energy use can have on the economy, the environment, and welfare.
Provide insights for the transition towards sustainability described by the Sustainable Development Goals adopted by the United Nations as well as the Paris International Climate Agreement. |
